The ongoing federal government shutdown has delayed the long-anticipated announcement of next year’s Social Security cost-of-living adjustment (COLA), leaving tens of millions of beneficiaries waiting to learn how much their benefits will rise in 2026.
The Social Security Administration (SSA) had planned to announce the 2024 COLA on Wednesday. However, because the shutdown has also postponed the release of September’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) — the key measure used to calculate the annual adjustment the announcement is now scheduled for October 24.
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Projected 2.7% Increase
Analysts from the Senior Citizens League and AARP project that Social Security benefits will rise by about 2.7% next year. More than 70.6 million Americans, including retirees, people with disabilities, and children, rely on these payments.
However, many beneficiaries say that even a modest increase won’t be enough to keep up with the cost of essentials like food, housing, and health care.
Calls for Change in COLA Calculation
Retired nurse Sue Conard, 75, of La Crosse, Wisconsin, joined other members of the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees (AFSCME) at the U.S. Capitol this week to urge lawmakers to end the shutdown and reform the way Social Security calculates COLA increases.
“The issue of how the COLA is determined is flat-out wrong because health care is not factored into the CPI,” Conard said outside the Longworth House Office Building.
Several Democratic lawmakers have proposed using a different formula called the Consumer Price Index for the Elderly (CPI-E), which more accurately reflects the spending patterns of older Americans, particularly for medical and prescription costs.
Sen. Bob Casey (D-Pa.) introduced similar legislation last session, though it never received a hearing in the Senate Finance Committee.
Rising Costs Still Outpacing Benefits
Even with annual adjustments, many retirees say their Social Security benefits don’t go far enough.
Vanessa Fields, a 70-year-old former social worker from Philadelphia, said she now pays about $1,000 a month for groceries — significantly more than in past years.
“The COLA doesn’t keep up with rising costs,” Fields said. “We’re going to be in bad shape if lawmakers don’t act.”
AARP CEO Myechia Minter-Jordan echoed those concerns, saying the COLA “isn’t just a source of income — it’s a lifeline of independence and dignity for tens of millions of older Americans.”
When Recipients Will Be Notified
Despite the delay, the SSA confirmed that benefits will still be adjusted on time. Recipients will begin receiving notifications about their new payment amounts in early December, and the updated benefits will take effect January 1, 2026.
Funding and Staffing Challenges
The delay comes as Social Security faces long-term funding and staffing challenges.
According to the 2024 Social Security and Medicare Trustees Report, the program’s trust fund will only be able to pay 81% of scheduled benefits by 2034 if Congress does not act to address the funding gap — one year earlier than last year’s projection.
Adding to the strain, the SSA has also reduced its workforce by about 7,000 employees from its previous total of 60,000, putting additional pressure on remaining staff to manage a growing number of claims and inquiries.